Topic: Switch 2 Has To Much Against It To Be A Commercial Success

I'm pulling out my inner Piccolo and calling the fight before it begins. This thing won't sell as much as people think it will.

Nintendo didn't factor in families or kids with small hands. Parents aren't gonna buy their kids $500 dollar handhelds with powerful specs when they can't comfortably hold it for long periods of time. This system is aimed at tech junkies and die hard Nintendo fans which aren't the majority. When this this thing launches, forums and social media will flood with complaints about the hardware. After doing a lot of contemplating, this was a very dumb move for Nintendo. All they had to do was update the eternals of the Switch and maybe a slight redesign. Instead they wanted to alienate their core audience with specs that don't even matter. I wish them luck but they're cooked with everything going on.

Eh, the first Switch's joycons were notoriously too small for most adult hands, and the placement of the sticks forced you to use them in a cramped, uncomfortable position. That didn't stop it from selling like hotcakes. If anything, Switch 2's slightly larger joycons seem to be more comfortable (several people who've tested them have said so), though obviously they're still not particularly ergonomic.

As for the weight, a regular Switch 1 weighs 400 grams and Switch 2 weighs 500 grams. I don't think that's such a huge difference that it'll have any major effect on sales.

The children will find a way, whether that’s holding the new joy con in their Switch 1 sized mitts, or getting their adults to buy the things..

You could've said all of these things about the OG Switch on day 1. The price, the size, the lack of anything resembling Wii Sports or Nintendo Land at launch. Where is the pack in, why are they charging us for Mario Kart again, BotW is just for core gamers they're not growing their audience. Families were obviously just going to skip Switch and continue to buy the more affordable 3DS

To some extent these people were right. But eventually the price became more acceptable, the Lite released, the OLED and V2 launched, the software came, the 3DS faded. The same will happen for Switch 2

Right now? Sure. Parents probably aren't getting their 8 year old a Switch 2. They're getting them a Switch Lite. And parents will keep doing that until inflation catches up to the perception of the Switch 2 price and/or there is a Switch 2 Lite

And mark my words, there will almost surely be a Switch 2 Lite. Switch 2 again, more efficient process, smaller screen, no video out, smaller battery, longer battery life. Maybe they also cut 120Hz and/or HDR. Maybe they pull it back to 720p. Hard to guess. But what I do know is that in a couple of years when it does appear you won't be posting on forums about how overpowered Switch 2 is. But in your place there will probably be people creating threads speculating about a Switch 2 Pro

From the chat at work, I think the prevailing narrative was "How much??? They can wait till Christmas!'

Which is a story as old as time lol.

@skywake I could see a Switch 2 Lite as soon as ‘26. I’d bet the engineering was simultaneous with Switch 2

You could say the same about the iPhone.

The fact is that we like to think of ourselves as canny informed consumers (and we may or may not be) but the mass market is largely influenced by what is actually on the shelves and that's influenced by what's being manufactured. In short Nintendo will inherit its own sales from the Switch 1 as it gradually removes Switch 1 from sale and makes sure that Switch 2 units go in its place instead.

The price is a different issue - the global economy is in a fragile situation right now but some people (maybe even the majority) have done well - very well - out of the system and are richer with more disposable income than ever before.

As to "parents won't buy young kids a giant expensive device that they can hardly even hold just to play games on" I think you need to look at just how many (young) kids have iPads (it's lots).

Nintendo has many challenges ahead of them and more competition in the market than 8 years ago but I think Switch 2 will do well even if it never quite manages to hit Switch 1 unit sales.

When it comes to game prices - I think the fears are overblown. Digital prices will be only slightly more expensive than they have been (as they should be given inflation). The pricing for physical media is part of a set of broader trends.

I think it's launch is going to be record breaking (accounting for the mess the US is in right now.)
It's mid life won't reach the highs of the pandemic (especially with the mess the global economy is in.)
It will need a price drop / stable price in it's late cycle to keep it's legs.
So all in all, it's going to be a different graph to Switch. Initially higher and possibly higher than the lowest years of Switch going forward...but Switch outpaces it on couple of those years.

Huge caveat. Games sell consoles. The launch line up is stellar. If they can keep up the momentum of a game a month, strong indie and proven third parties then they don't have much to worry about. If they need the occassional Switch 2 edition to keep that up, well, so be it. I think they have done enough to remain prolific without bloating the development cost of every game out of the water.

There is a danger of the gaming industry going into a state of emergency. The US is unstable, chaotic and unpredictable for the next 4 years. Of course, I'm sure people will blame Nintendo. That doesn't require much thought.

@GrailUK There’s not much chance the Switch 2 getting a price drop unless Nintendo is forced to do it in order to improve lagging sales early on. Both the PS5 and Xbox consoles have had at least price increase each and that started happening several years ago. It’s the first generation to see hardware become more expensive over time instead of less.

@FragRed Well we will see. 4 years is a long time in front to predict.

It’s interesting. My biggest gripe was the pricing but I also think a lot of the problems and concerns on the Switch 2 were shared by its predecessor.

450 is a tad expensive but I also think we tend to overlook that many had doubts about the 300 price point of the Switch. At the time the switch was launching you could have bought a brand new PS4 slim for that 299.99 price: https://blog.playstation.com/2016/09/07/playstation-meeting-2...

Or if you were able to get a deal, even spend less on a standard PS4 bundle for 249.99:
https://blog.playstation.com/2016/11/19/black-friday-weekend-...

I don’t think the console price is as much of a deal breaker, assuming tariffs don’t cause them to bump it up more.

The 80 dollar price on Mario Kart World might matter but I also don’t know if the average consumer will care much, especially if they can get it cheaper in a bundle.

I disagree

I think the asking price it a bit much for parents to consider it as a no-brainer gift for their children. Switch 2 won't sell as much as Switch 1, but if it sold as well as the Wii (101m) that would be fine. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if it sold closer to what the 360 and PS3 sold (86m). I'll be curious to see what the Xbox handheld and rumored Playstation handheld are going to arrive at price wise.

Depending on their specs, they'll no doubt be more expensive than Switch 2.

This is an amazing point well said. I think people are generally too focused at launch on where the Switch 2 sits against the Switc. But in doing so they are not considering how Switch 2 will look on shelves a year from now. How it'll compare to a probably more expensive and power inefficient x86 based portable XBox. How it compares to PS5 and PS5 Pro, especially given recent price increases. How it will look when there are cut down revisions

I think it's fair to assume that parents will still be buying their 8 year olds a new gaming console for Christmas in 2027. So what will it be? I would say Switch 2 will be compelling

Can't say I agree really, I doubt that it could be as successful as the Switch but the Switch 2 is going to be a very compelling product going forward - Tonnes of exclusives over the next couple of years, decent specs that will support comparable versions of third party titles, access to (nearly) the entire Switch library of games etc etc

I'm sure it's price point will look good vs the rumoured Xbox and PlayStation handhelds too, these things won't be cheap

I'm concerned, for sure. To say the least, this is a terribly volatile market to be releasing a new product into. Over the course of the past 8 years, I'm ashamed to admit, I've purchased a total of 6 Switches: 1 OG, 1 OLED, and 4 Lites (the whys of their purchases is a sad tale for another time, but they weren't all for me, they were for my kid, too). Without tax, that's roughly $1,450.

Again, that's 6 Switches for $1,450.

3 Switch 2s comes to $1,350. 6 would be an eye watering $2,700.

So no, I really don't think the Switch 2 will sell in the same volume that the Switch 1 did. Both my and my kid want one at launch, but we'll only be buying a single console to share as a family for the moment. Other families may be in different circumstances, but speaking for mine I just don't see us going whole hog on the 2 like we did on the 1.

That said, my kid has watched the Switch 2 Direct and Treehouses multiple times. They are ravenous for this thing. We'll have to wait and see, but much like life and dinosaurs: kids, uh, find a way.

I think 80-90 million at the least is what it'll end up getting, maybe more depending on decisions made in latter half of the console's lifespan.

Here's what makes it a different story than Wii U:

• 2 is way more straightforward of a name than U
• Trying to show power, aka not launching with a 2D Mario that looks identical to the Wii and 3DS version of the game.
• Combination of inherently handheld and console franchises, Wii U lacked a mainline Kirby, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon. There was also no exclusive Wii U main Zelda game. You could play almost any Wii U game on 3DS too, or at least something really close to it. Wii U had Pikmin 3 and Splatoon, but that wasn't enough to get people to buy the console. Since 3DS and Wii U essentially split up franchises on each, Switch and Switch 2 are able to have all of them on one console.

It will sell but I don't think it will surpass 150mils if it does I be amazed. The cost will be the crutch in Switch 2 becoming bigger. Unless it goes to 400 that might be different but at 450 a pop that going to hit budgets harder then if it was 350. That's roughly 100 more your paying and sure you get all the RT/DLSS/4K60FPS40FPS but man that just hurts alot if you really more then one in a family of say 4 kids. That can be a stickler of a issue now worse when Holidays come closer.

This post reminds me of that Colin Moriarty's original Switch prediction lol

The "I'm not buying a $500 games console for my kids" argument doesn't add up to me when I see kids walking around with the latest over priced iPhone all the time.