Topic: Switch 2 Has To Much Against It To Be A Commercial Success

@Buizel It was pretty much guaranteed that the existence of a new Nintendo console would bring up the discussion of what's next for Smash. I was hoping for something different from Smash so Kirby Air Riders was a nice surprise.

As the person who has been on these forums with a Super Mario Kart avatar for well over a decade I think I can safely count myself as a "Mario Kart Fan". I for one like the look of World. A lot. I would go as far as saying that to me it's the most excited I've been about a new Mario Kart since Mario Kart Wii

@FragRed
Again, people were making similar comments about Switch and the flood of Wii U ports. Just this time it's updates rather than entirely new releases. Will there be some that as a Switch owner I'll pass on? Sure. And the same was true for Switch as a Wii U owner. The only difference now is they're not charging me full retail for the privilege of using new console features on last generation games I already own

I'm kind of wondering if the decision to make Switch 2 Editions factored into them releasing new entries for major IPs late in the Switch's life. At the time I thought it might've been a bad idea to release games like TotK and Mario Wonder when they did because those are games I'd have liked to see used to sell next gen hardware. But with S2E's they kind of still can while being free to release them late last gen when they were ready and were in a more secure financial position. I feel like part of the strategy with S2Es is so they can be more flexible with the release schedule. They don't need to hold X game for Y console, they can just release it when it's ready and release a higher performance version of the game when the new console launches. They don't need a designated entry for their IPs on new consoles if they don't have any good ideas on how to differentiate it (so no NSMB situations), they can just create new content by rereleasing an old version and essentially giving it DLC. That may be the reason this is the reality we're facing with the Switch 2 lineup.

Yes, a lot of people did believe that Smash 6 would be an early Switch 2 title despite discussions about Sakurai's age and potential retirement. I was not one of them TBH, but I did see a lot of people that were dead certain on Smash 6 early.

There's no way Smash is dead forever. It's way too profitable, Nintendo will want a new entry eventually. But I do think there's a good chance that it sees a lengthy hiatus of new entries similar to the likes of 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and DK. I suspected, and I believe it even more after it was confirmed Sakurai was working on Air Riders, that Smash is only getting Ultimate S2E for the time being. In fact it may even be this gen's MK8D and we don't even see Smash 6 until Switch 3. It just seems to make more sense for Sakurai to retire from Smash, the younger devs to port Ultimate to get a feel for how to develop it themselves, and then take what they learn from the port and spend some time figuring out what they want a post-Sakurai Smash game to be like. Nintendo's devs have used this playbook quite frequently, often times when they're coming up with a big new innovative project they build up to it by working with a smaller project (typically a port, remake, or remaster) and experimenting with it. Probably the same thing here. Smash 6 is likely not going to come out of thin air, we're probably going to need to just let them cook on this one.

I'll add by saying this is maybe the most excited I've been for Mario Kart since...MKDS? And I adored MK8 in both its iterations. Honestly baffled by people claiming that this game isn't big enough of a leap...I can't even think of an instance where MK made a bigger "leap" in play style in the past and I have faith that Nintendo will do the open world justice.

Yeah - it's not that I assumed the series was dead (no way is that possible, as you say) - just on hiatus while they figure out what to do following Ultimate. IDK in my mind Ultimate is still a very recent game - we were still having character reveals less than 4 years ago* - and the scale of it content and fanservice-wise seems like an insurmountable thing to top at this point. Completely agree with your suggestions though. It wouldn't surprise me if Smash 6 was either a late-generation title, or pushed to the next gen altogether.

[*] I realise the gap between Smash 4 and Ultimate was smaller, but I put this to the circumstances being different (failure of the Wii U, and the way in which Ultimate built on the previous entries [i.e. emphasis on stages/characters]). I was honestly surprised they revealed Ultimate as soon as they did but it makes sense in hindsight.

@rallydefault No *****.

@Buizel I disagree. I see your logic, but Nintendo 100% started drawing up design docs for the next Smash Bros game already. Probably already during the DLC for Smash Ultimate, just like how they started Ultimate development during the Smash 4 DLC. It's going to be announced 1 - 2 years after the launch of Switch 2 with a release the following Summer. Ultimate released in 2018. It's been 7 years since the main game came out and you can't convince me they had the entire staff dedicated to DLC during that time. We are already looking at a decade since the completion of Ultimate before the next one. A Smash Bros has released within the first 3 years of every mainline Nintendo console since the Gamecube. Frankly, there is no reason to believe that a new Smash Bros won't be released early in the Switch 2 life cycle. Reminder that they had technically started planning Brawl before Sakurai joined the project, you don't believe they would have cancelled Brawl if Sakurai said no to joining the team do you? Sakurai isn't the linchpin to the series. I don't have any guess as to what form the game will take, souped up Ultimate port a.la Mario Kart 8 Deluxe or an original title, but Smash Bros is too much of a money maker for Nintendo to ignore an entire generation.

FNAC announced Switch 2 preorders are through the roof, accessory sales preorders are extremely strong, especially the camera, while software sales are a bit soft, but expected to uptick closer to launch. Others pointed out, however, that FNAC had priced games higher than competitors so it makes sense fewer people opted to purchase games from them.

Bottom line- Switch 2 is cookin' like no console before it. I must admit, I'm somewhat eager to see the response of doomsayers when this console releases and starts smashing records left and right. It was a genuine pleasure watching the reaction of fanboys when Switch released and dunked all over the alter of their plastic idols.

@Bolt_Strike
Just wanted to say that was a fine post with valuable insight. I pretty much agree with everything you said.

@Bolt_Strike I think it could've been that Nintendo planned for 2023 Switch 2 release but the exclusive games weren't ready so they released what would've been crossgen games released in 2025 as Switch 1 games in 2023/2024 instead. It would line up with the talk back then about TotK supposedly being the final big Switch 1 game and Scarlet/Violet getting a Switch 2 patch at the same time as Indigo Disk.

Maybe Wonder was meant to be the SMB 40th anniversary game?

@AnnoyingFrenzy All of these arguments could apply to Mario Kart and we didn't get an all-new Mario Kart for the Switch (unless you count Live Circuit).

I dunno, it's possible we get Smash in the next couple of years. It could be an enhanced Ultimate or a completely new game. It could reinvent the wheel or play it safe. It could be developed with Sakurai on board or not. We really don't know. But my point is I don't think a fully new entry is a given, especially with Ultimate being such a tough act to follow.

@Uncle_Franklin
Nice. Someone gets it lol

@JaxonH I saw that. I wonder if those figures are inflated by international purchases though. I live in Sweden and the switch is 200 euro more in the Nordic countries than in France. I have ordered from France myself and I have seen on some Swedish forums alot of people saying they have ordered from FNAC. I have also noticed that while the different Amazon sites in europe stopped doing pre orders some time ago FNAC are still doing preorders and they are the only site I could find in Europe apart from some of the Amazon sites that ship to large list of countries.

I think the thing will sell well enough at this stage anyway but FNAC have put themselves in a position to soak up extra orders from other European countries.

@Buizel See, but Mario Kart 8 Deluxe came out 1 month after the system launched and we knew about it before the system launched as well. Like Smash, there is only ever one Mario Kart a system (I don't count Live and I don't think Nintendo does either). If we don't see Smash Ultimate Deluxe within the first year of the system, my money is on the next mainline game by 2028 at the latest. Also, its going to be the next $80 game after Mario Kart World. Just my two cents, of course. Your perspective is as equally valid at this point in time.

@Grumblevolcano I doubt it. Beyond the games themselves, there also seem to be hardware concepts that got shifted around too to the point where I don't think they initially planned for a Switch 2 in 2023. Remember there were a lot of rumors about a Switch Pro around 2020/2021 that ultimately never came to be. I strongly suspect that they were initially planning a Switch Pro analogous to mid-gen refreshes like the DSi and New 3DS. But then the pandemic and the resulting chip shortage happened so they couldn't get the stronger chips they needed to make that happen, so they gutted the Switch Pro and turned what was left into the Switch OLED and pushed everything else to Switch 2. So I'm not sure that was their initial plan, I think some of these games were planned as part of a second wave of Switch 2 games to coincide with (and possibly take advantage of) a Switch Pro. At best holding some of these for Switch 2 might've been a Plan B.

I also think there's some opposite scenarios at play here too with some of the Switch 2 games being initially planned as Switch 1 games. I don't think it's coincidence that the two big Switch 2 exclusives we know so far are two IPs that never got an original Switch 1 entry altogether, I think they were originally planned as Switch 1/Switch Pro games and got pushed to Switch 2. Mario Kart's 8 year gap between 8D and World is very weird, especially considering that before 8D we were getting pretty consistent 3 year gaps between mainline Mario Kart entries. And no, I don't think "one Mario Kart per console" really explains this either because we did get a second Mario Kart game in the form of Home Circuit and Mario Kart World is a very different entry from 8D to the point where I don't think they would've cannibalized each other. I think World was planned as a later gen entry that got pushed to Switch 2. Likewise, we had no original DK entry on the Switch 1, just DKCR and TF ports, and there were rumors circling about a new DK entry for the 40th anniversary in 2021. That never happened. I think Bananza was that DK entry that got pushed to the Switch 2.

I don't think there's just one factor at play here and Nintendo's release schedule has simply endured a ton of chaos in the last 5 years. A global pandemic, chip shortage, and delays in hardware and software seem to have resulted in drastic changes in their plans. And with the whole economic and tariff situation, the chaos may continue for the foreseeable future. I don't think they're remotely confident in their initial plans anymore, so having filler entries like the S2Es that can serve as "new" entries helps to mitigate those issues and just release games when they're ready without having to worry about when in the hardware lifespan they're releasing.

The only thing that will harm Switch 2 sales is either stock is restrained for some reason or due to tariffs the price skyrockets.

From launch until probably middle of next year everyone buying this thing will be hardcore Nintendo fans who own a Switch 1 and been on forums like this pining for the days of a Switch Pro or successor.

I have been watching videos of the Switch 1 reveal and everyone was like, it's too expensive, 1, 2 Switch looks great, everyone is going to love it, ARMS looks amazing is this the new Splatoon? Those people are smart and inciteful people and they were dead wrong! The Switch was a runaway success fuelled not by mass market crap, but by a solid cadence of strong first party titles.

This time around the Switch I believe will be a 3rd party juggernaut! While Sony and Microsoft are scrambling to get out their portable consoles Nintendo is here with "portable power" capable of running Cyberpunk 2077! Heck the original Switch could run Crysis =)

Steam deck cannot compete and ROG Ally and other portable windows tablets will be even more expensive and niche. Nintendo pioneered this category and they dominate. And if tariffs do play a role it will hurt the other guys who cannot compete on volume even more.

Nintendo has not even got rolling with their surprises and crazy over priced doo-dads they will sell you, and you will buy it. We didn't know in March 2017 that the same time next year would be a complete year of Smash Ultimate hype! We didn't know Animal Crossing was going to be a once in a generation juggernaut! We didn't know about Labo, Tears of the Kingdom, etc.

Let me paint the picture as best as I can -

June 5th Nintendo is selling you a 4K, 120FPS handheld with open world Mario Kart (remember the casuals don't even know this game is a thing yet), Cyberpunk, upgraded Fortnite, Gamecube with rewind and Xbox Live style party chat on device!

It's likely we get a June direct which will begin the Super Mario 40th Anniversary announcements, this can be a new open world Mario game, this could be the return of 3D All Stars, this could be all sorts.

Florida just opened Epic Universe with Super Nintendo World including Donkey Kong Country. We just got DK Country Returns HD (and a slew of Gameboy games on NSO). When school is out that park is going to be rammed day and night with people spending $40 on power bands.

In July Nintendo is releasing an true 3D Donkey Kong game.

This holiday Nintendo is releasing the following - Masahiro Sakurai's Kirby Air Riders, Metroid Prime 4 Beyond, Hyrule Warriors Age of Imprisonment and Pokemon ZA. That is not even including a potential for a new open world Mario.

In March 2026 Nintendo is releasing the Super Mario Movie 2 featuring Yoshi. This will culminate the Mario 40th anniversary.

We still don't know about Splatoon, Animal Crossing and Smash!

Trust me they are going to be JUST FINE!

@M67
Maybe, but that was likely also true for PS5 and XS when they released, and for Switch when it released.

@SwitchplayerJohn
While core fans do account for a large chunk of sales, more casual players also buy from day 1. It's why it's gets featured on tech channels and late night shows and mainstream media. The Wii phenomenon was essentially all casuals yet it sold out the gate and never let up until after 2009.

I remember back in 2011 I saw a magazine with a small article and picture of the upcoming 3DS. I was not a core gamer at the time. Yet I remember getting excited over a cool new gadget. And I bought one on a whim during the launch window.

@JaxonH Could be!