Topic: Switch 2 Has To Much Against It To Be A Commercial Success

The Mario Kart World vs 8 value comparison is odd I feel. Especially because the amount you actually spent on both really depends on how you're getting both

For me I got Mario Kart 8 on Wii U when it launched. Not as a bundle because I already had a Wii U but because the Wii U was struggling they did give you a free game if you got Mario Kart 8. Even so, what game next more than covered the cost of that free game. There was DLC that was a charge after launch. Then the Switch launches and I got it again because you can't not have a Mario Kart on a portable. Maybe I could've skipped it.... but if I had I wouldn't have been able to access the Deluxe DLC for that which at least was included in NSO and battle mode

Mario Kart World? There's a bundle at launch. Technically I'm paying about $10 less than the RRP of the base version of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for World

I think it'll be a commercial success. Sell more than or equal to Switch 1? Maybe not, but it'll still be a success overall.

@M67
I don’t recall any other Mario Karts being open world. You don’t think that’s a big step?

@rallydefault I think its a step but how engaging the open world is will determine how big the step that is. If nintendo came out and said they were developing an open world metroid or donkey kong game we would just assume they would populate that open world with a substantial amount of things to engage us, right? I think Mariokart should be judged by the same standard especially with the price increase.

Mariokart aside. I think the price increase for the games at large is jarring. I think also Switch 1 had many factors going for it that Switch 2 doesn't currently. Other people have made compelling arguments for why it will be a great success. I've already ordered it.

We'll learn more at the conclusion of Q1 2026. By then the enthusiasts will have largely purchased the Switch2 if they wanted one. The broader market will be interesting to watch. Nintendo's concurrent sales of the Switch with the Switch2 will also provide something of a test case as to whether there is any larger customer confusion regarding the reality of a new Nintendo console.

New consoles releases by the major manufacturers have up until now been visually distinct, helping to set them apart from the previous generation. The Switch2 will look very much like the OG Switch to the average consumer.

As of now, the talking point out of the C-Suite at Nintendo is that the Switch OG is an option provided for the value consumer or those priced out of the Switch2 market.

I think one thing everyone needs to understand is that yes things are more expensive, yes it sucks.

However that's not Nintendo's fault that your wages haven't gone up with inflation. They have people to pay too, who also want THEIR wages to go up in line with inflation.

This is where the reality sinks in: capitalism has stagnated to the rich, and the workers of the world are getting nothing for it. Everything gets more expensive over time, because inflation is just inevitable, even at a tiny rate, and yet wages haven't gone up to accommodate.

So now you have the basics economic question: do you buy what you need, or what you want? And when you break that down, you'll find the things you need are substantially more expensive than they should be. Why? Because you NEED them.

Food is cheap to produce, comparatively. You need food. Food can increase massively with inflation, and it just becomes more profit for the companies. Once the issues causing the prices to go up are resolved, are the prices going to come down again? No. Because now there's even MORE profit in it for the companies, because you need to buy it, and we're buying it at those higher prices anyway.

But where does that pure profit go? To the top. Trickle down doesn't exist, it's a fantasy because humans are inherently self centered. We are socially engineered to want for ourselves and no one else.

Do wages stay flat. Purchasing power goes down, prices go up, profits go up.

And Nintendo has to play that game too, and with how real world market conditions are currently as volatile as a pensioners bowel movements, the pricing there will change too, but it's not their fault that that is happening.

It does truly suck, but put what you need above what you want unless you can save for it, and remember the only reason we wake up in the morning is to go to work to earn money so we can buy food and a home and continue to exist without risk to our wellbeing or life, so other people can earn money and do the same.

The market will decide, and Nintendo is playing the same game as everyone else, except the game has been upended and now everyone is in the firing line.

Switch 2 has too much going for it to be a failure. It is the exclusive home for some of the biggest video game franchises in the world, many of which are 2 - 4x bigger today than they were 8 years ago.

@M67
What price increases for other games? I've only heard DK is gonna be 70, which seems to be the industry standard now.

No, it doesn't.
It's a hybrid, meaning like Switch it will combine's Nintendo's handheld and home console audience.
I don't see it selling any worse than 3DS, and it will probably still crack 100 million units.
Pokémon, Super Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and Zelda will help it immensely.

@Kaisarion83 agreed. I think it will massively under perform. I don't think the value proposition is there. Unless you're dead set on spending $580 plus tax, minimum, to play Mario Kart World, specifically, with your partner or kid, then I don't see why someone would buy it. And I think most people won't. Has NL still not had their poll asking if we're all going to buy this thing or not?

I do think that we may be underestimating the appeal in a totally new Mario Kart, even more so since 8 Deluxe lasted the entire life of the Switch 1.

Like I'm not a huge racing fan, but open world + Mario Kart + being the first new mainline game in like 8 years (10 if you don't count Deluxe) just feels like it'll be a storm for the average consumer.

I could see it succeeding, but not being a tremendous success like the Switch 1. The economy just isn't favorable for it and in fact I could see the industry as a whole suffering the next few years as people have less disposable income to buy luxuries like video games. I think it'll do somewhere in the range of 30-60 million.

I think people overstate how bad the economy is. The unemployment rate isn't at 10% right now or anything. And Ive personally seen wages increase significantly these past few years. Most jobs are starting at $20-25/hr around here because they need more workers.

It's true costs are increasing, no denying that. Groceries for example. But it's not so much people are starving on the streets.

PS5 continues to sell at $500 and $700 ($800 with disc drive- which most people ARE buying as evidenced by the ratio of normal PS5 sales to discless PS5 sales). Switch 2 is gonna smash at $450 and $500 including Mario Kart World.

Will it top 70 million like MK8D? Probably not. But it's an easy 50 million seller. And who knows- it very well may surprise us and do even better. Regardless, the game is gonna be a monster.

It’s gonna sell a tonne. Will easily smash 3ds numbers

I think it will be fine. For its form factor and library (if you include switch games) it is an incredible value and frankly prices are high on everything and buying power is less (varies per country) …for every person that drops out there are 10 more behind them ready to spend. The only constraints I see are stock due to logistics and the Trade War. Nintendo has to find a way to keep steady stock on the shelves. You can’t buy what isn’t available. Especially since the switch 2 will be sharing this holiday with the readily available switch. I do think sales will be moderate but steady.

The trade war is pushing me into getting one at launch primarily because I am harshly curbing back purchases. I am keeping any existing preorders (as most are either paid or budgeted for) and aside from switch 2, not making any new ones including merch and statues. Gonna move, bunker down, work and play what I have and set up my victory garden. And try to recover my 401k. Otherwise I’m focusing on increasing my income so I can help my parents as needed.

As often happens with ultra popular consoles, I don't expect Switch 2 to sell as much as Switch 1. But I think it will still do quite well. Really the only downside is the price but PS5 is even more so either people are going to stop buying consoles for their children and selves or they will get the most for their money which I would argue will be Switch 2 given the combination of power, form factor, and library.

Yeah, at least in the US, the economy was recovering extremely well last year and finally fully getting out of that covid-era slump and related inflationary after-effect. I know not every country was doing as well, but I think a lot of the current worry is less that the economy is bad and more that people worry it will get worse, potentially worldwide, because of trade wars etc.

@Ryu_Niiyama
I think that's smart. Tariffs are 10% right now but come July those Vietnam tariffs are going back to 32% (originally 46% so it's good news it was lowered). If Switch 2 costs Nintendo $400 to make, that's an extra $130 added to the cost, or $530. They're not gonna eat an $80 cost. I could see raising price to $499.99 and eating a $30 cost, then bank on lowered manufacturing costs over time bringing it to a point of breaking even or even making $10-20 per console. But supply will be limited in the US to whatever they can manufacture in Vietnam, cause they're not shipping any Chinese units to the US.

Constrained supply and almost certainly a higher price coming later this year means by waiting to buy, not only will it potentially be harder to secure, it very well may cost more. The best time to buy, in my humble opinion, will be launch day.

I do think Nintendo will request higher volume orders from their Vietnam supplier. Until they can add an additional assembly line, which may take 6-9 months, supply may remain constrained in the US. They were smart to move a good chunk of production to Vietnam when they did.

But Sony... they got caught with their pants down right now facing 245% tariffs. PS5 for $1200. PS5 Pro for $1750 😆 Its about to get very interesting once their stock runs out later this year. Granted, I do expect us to strike a deal with China, lowering tariffs to around 50% there. Even so, that still takes the digital only PS5 to $600 if they passed all the costs onto the consumer. $750 for base PS5. $1050 for PS5 Pro. Ppl are complaining now but Switch 2 is gonna be the budget option. There's still Xbox but... well, nobody buys Xbox.

Btw, will Xbox be affected like everyone else? Theyre an American company, but I imagine they still manufacture in China. So the price of Series S/X could increase also.

@JaxonH I do think that Nintendo is gonna boost marketing in other regions as well. Since it’s only one region that has the price issue (I don’t know the logistics of how they get goods to Canada and Mexico plus they will want to combat US importers) I think they would be better served trying to loosen Sony’s grip on Europe and striking a deal with China. They can likely make up many sales lost in NA that way. But I do think there is still gonna be a price increase later. I think it’s smart trying to use accessories as a buffer as people won’t blink at a 5-10 USD increase at first. I do think all companies impacted need to make sure they explain why the prices are going up and keep saying it. The voting population can do with that what they will.

This could give xbox a boost globally (they don’t manufacture in the US (same as everyone else)) but so far they are still cheaper than ps5 pro and play many of the same games. It will be interesting to watch in a morbid sorta way. Plus Xbox is trying to get paid coming and going as a publisher.

Personally I believe China when they say they are willing to stick this out. And same as the last round of this they slowly shifted markets to new suppliers and trade partners. US soybean farmers still hurting from the last Tariff tiff. And those USDA farmers don’t look like they are gonna get as many bailouts. The issue is the primary goods the US trades are services (skilled workers) and consumers (we buy everything). Consumers are everywhere and as recession hits, many skilled workers have the option to transfer offices or remote work. I am stuck in my state for school but as funding dries up I am considering moving back home and figuring out school once I am in a lower cost state. I wouldn’t lose my primary job (and my skillset is portable). And if I did that I would likely put most of my stuff in storage and either move back in with my parents so I can directly contribute to their household income or rent a 1 bedroom near them and mostly use it as an office.

@Ryu_Niiyama
China sure sounded like they were gonna stick it out but just recently news broke they want to negotiate, provided US accepts some conditions (which I'm guessing with the growing pro-democracy protests in China, which is fairly remarkable given the fact they have 1 camera for every 2 Chinese citizens and people tend to disappear when they speak out against the government, so I commend the courage of those people hanging banners from bridges and speaking out on social media, they're putting their lives on the line) which I'm guessing is just posturing to not appear weak. Whether their terms will be accepted is another question. I'm leaning toward a deal being struck. But you never know. Both leaders are too proud for their own good so anything could happen.

Still, 15% of their exports go to the US, and unlike here, they don't have 401k and savings. Maybe a gold coin their grandfather passed down to them. They're living day to day. And when people start going hungry that's when social uprisings occur. And we're starting to see glimpses of that already. Id wager their government is afraid of that growing anti-CCP sentiment and will try to come to an agreement to protect their power.

Either way, Sony doesn't escape this. Even assuming a best case scenario there's no way they can eat a 50% increase in cost without raising price. You correctly pointed out this is an opportunity for Nintendo to focus growing their base in other countries with supply capped to the US for the foreseeable future. And let's be honest here, they need to do that because for all their success in North America they are still second place in Europe and there's really no reason they should be.

@JaxonH you have to remember China has a different saving culture than the west. We have to have 401k/pension because we can’t (are trained to not) save on our own. Plus our debt culture is different than other countries. Either way I will let the rich toddlers fight it out. My focus is me and my family and giving back to my community.

Yeah sony is sorta stuck in a rock and a hard place. They made their rep being the tech leader on console but that costs money. Five years ago I would have thought that sony would buffer a little of the cost and use their other markets and ventures to ride out as they seek market share but honestly their marketing in the US has not been amazing so when the prices went up and the ps5pro was announced it looked like they were headed on a bad pricing trajectory. A trade war was the last thing they needed. I know whomever works on their projections is ticked.